On Betemit, Statistics, and Reason
I've been discussing a few things across a couple other blogs lately, Mike Sommer's excellent The Sommer Frieze and Bryan Hoch's Bombers Beat. Primarily, the discussion/dispute has revolved around sensitivity concerning my considering some opinions at Bombers Beat questionable, such as the notion that Wilson Betemit should not be on the Yankees because of a purported lack of offensive productivity and others, such as Chris Woodward, performing better this Spring. For various reasons, the discussion at Bombers Beat has gone nowhere, and my interest in pressing the matter any further there has waned to around zero. Make a case using statistics, and get criticized by people there who used none to buttress their own, and just misapplied statistical analysis.
A case in point: one commenter there against Betemit's spot on the team writes, "His HR, and RBI totals are slightly misleading as some of them came in garbage time in games that were out of hand (16-8 win over KC 3RBI, and an 18-9 loss to LAA with 1HR 3RBI )." For the most part, that's not true, and it isn't exactly impossible to perform a statistical analysis of Betemit's brief tenure with the 2007 Yankees. Betemit has been criticized by some at these blogs for a failure to produce offensively. Yet Betemit drove in 24 runs in 19 hits (out of 84 at-bats) with the Yankees in 2007--more than an RBI per hit. In 240 at-bats between LA and NY, he hit 14 homers and drove in 50 runs, a pace over 480 at-bats of 28 HRs and 100 RBIs--high productivity. He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough, but not produce? Not true, he does--in streaks, but he produces.
Concerning the above comment, again, examining the numbers just doesn't bear out the crux of the criticism--that some of them [HRs and RBIs] came in garbage time. That's true for absolutely every player, and doesn't have any obvious merit here whatsoever. More importantly, the numbers just don't bear that out, for the pertinent questions are whether and when he was productive. See for yourselves:
8/2 vs. White Sox--1 HR, 3 RBI--all three in 2nd, making 8-1 game 8-4, part of 8-run second to tie the game.
8/4 vs. KC [one of the 'garbage time" references]--3-4, 3 RBI--3rd inning, made 4-2 Yankees 5-2 Yanks; 6th inning, two-run single made 8-6 Yanks 10-6. That's a key role in close situations.
8/13 vs. O's--1 HR, 2 RBI--homer and RBIs in 2nd off Guthrie, who was tough on the Yanks last year, making 3-2 O's 4-3 Yanks.
8/19 vs. Tigers--2-5, 4 RBIs--single in 7th makes 4-3 Yanks 5-3; bases-clearing double in 8th makes 6-3 game 9-3, cinching the game against the dangerous Tigers; not "garbage time."
8/21 vs Angels--1 HR, 3 RBI--homer in 9th makes 18-5 game 18-8 Angels--"garbage time," true.
9/4 vs Seattle--1 RBI--6th inning, single makes 3-0 Yanks 4-0 game, not "garbage time."
9/8 vs. KC--1 HR, 3 RBI--6th inning, 3-run homer makes 4-2 Yankees game 7-2, part of 7-run inning, not 'garbage time."
9/9 vs. KC--1 RBI--2nd inning, double makes 2-0 Yankees 3-0 game, not "garbage time."
9/29 vs. O's--1 RBI--4th inning, single ties game at 6, after Yankees were losing 6-1 entering inning and is part of 10-run Yankees' explosion, not "garbage time."
9/30 vs. O's, 2-5, 3 RBI--3rd inning, double breaks 1-1 tie; 4th inning ground out makes 5-1 game 6-1; 7th inning single makes 9-3 game 10-3; two RBIs not "Garbage time," one in "garbage time."
See for yourselves--24 RBIs, many in streaks with some dry runs in between, filled with strikeouts to be sure. But in actual "garbage time," only 4 of his 24 RBIs (16.67%) was in 'garbage time:" the three against the Angels in the blowout, and his last RBI against the Orioles. All the others were when the game was still in doubt, and within 1-4 runs. Especially given how porous the bullpen was at times, these runs all mattered. Additionally, is it the batter's fault that he gets hits and drives in runs late in games? Not necessarily. So much of productivity in baseball is what people do before you. Betemit produced a lot down the stretch. He has his flaws, especially striking out too often, is weak enough as a righty to hardly be a switch hitter, and needs to step it up this year. Today showed that, belting a homer off a good reliever in Accardo. But he produces and did so when the Yankees were on a late-season tear. They needed him and he delivered when it mattered.
I'm not trying to be disagreeable. Nor am I trying to dissuade people from going to Bombers Beat. Nor do I mind disagreeing with people, or they with me. I'm perfectly fine with having divergent opinions. My point is to be careful and thorough with information, and to support opinions. I dare say that some fans trying to make cases against Betemit's history and likely role on the team have not made their cases at all, certainly not with me. In fact, given the rather Orwellian nature of the discussion and misuse of statistics, I find a few of the views, in Orwellian lexicon, double-plus untrue. You judge for yourselves. Other than with you good people and other thoughtful baseball fans, I'm washing my hands of the matter.
Bryan Hoch is very good. It's the readers who ruin it for me.
Your points are excellent, well-researched and written. I know many who put far too much into batting average. They are the types who would have been all over Maris for hitting .269 in 1961. Never mind the rest.
I remember (being that I am a Yankee fan in Eastern PA) the things Phillie fans said about Joe Carter before the 1993 World Series. About his low batting average. I told them to watch. The average may be low, but look at the RBI. When it is clutch time, he delivers. Well, we know what happened, don't we?
Given a choice between a .300 singles hitter who drives in 50 runs and never walks, and a .250 hitter who drives in 90, has his hits go for extra bases and who walks 75 times, give me the .250 hitter. Runs mean ballgames. We all would rather get 4 runs on 6 hits in a game rather than 1 run on 9.
I believe in OPS and esp. OPS+. I wish the papers printed the OPS's each week, rather than the batting averages. Even with the low BA last year, Betemit had an OPS+ of 101...league average. It's 97 for his career. Slightly below. He is a switch-hitter, albeit much better lefty...always an advantage at the Stadium. Woodward is a righty hitter, of which you already have Molina and Shelley Duncan on the bench. Maybe even Ensberg. Yankee Stadium would not be kind with him. With his .199-1-8 in 136 AB last year, Woodward's OPS+ was a 39. It was just a 56 the year before. For his career, a 74.
Betemit is just 26. Woodward 31. One has power and may still develop further, the other is probably as good as
he will ever be.
One final point, if I may. It's been said not to get too enthused over what happens in the spring (even though people are fighting for jobs) or during September when you have callups. Both are times that often fool fans, managers and GMs over how good someone is.
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i see what's goin' on here mister. you're trying to out-stat the magician ( who has been strangely silent)
well you have certainly used the facts to support your case. i'm a bit perplexed as to why there is such a bitter discussion on other blogs as the the worthiness of betemit.
lets try to put this in perspective. the people who are screaming about him fail to take into account that we're talking about a bench player, not our everyday 3rd baseman.
this is a very useful guy off the bench who can hit very well on the left side...forget about his being a switch hitter, but that doesn't matter. he also can play all the infield positions, including 2nd. what's not to like?
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Mike, you're probably right, we shouldn't get too excited about brett gardner.
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Exactly. People want a 25th man to hit like Rod Carew and a mop up man to pitch like Tom Seaver. People forget that they are in their respective roles for a reason.
And yes, I'll definitely admit to being one who will sometimes get caught up in someone having a good spring or September...part of being a fan.
Gotta go...catch you later!
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I don't know about excited...just realizing the potential that he can bring. After all, speed is one thing that can't be taught. It's a gift you are born with (and I wasn't)...ha ha. The hitting coach can work with him on his hitting, and coaches can work with him on his lead and jump. The flat-out speed? God-given.
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Thanks Mike and Mike. Same here about Bryan Hoch's blog. He does a very good job. Some commenters there are obtuse.
Carter is a really good example, Mike, and I've warmed up to the analytical value of OPS. It's a good indicator of production. Your OPS inclusion reinforces the value Betemit brings over Woodward.
Mike, the anti-Betemit cabal baffles me as well, especially the abject denial of his having any value. History, statistics, and logic show otherwise. Your point, on which Mike piggy-backs, is a good one. People are expecting a ton from bench players. What Betemit produced last year was impressive despite a prolonged swoon with the Yanks. There's no way that Woodward will hit close to .400 in the regular season, as he is in the Spring. Common sense, which you Mikes are thankfully infusing, and history show that.
Gardner's speed was on display against the Bucs the other night, and how. At the very least, he deserves lots of time in Scranton. I'd love to see his stolen-base percentages after a couple months in AAA, should he not make the team that is. He's earned a good look from the Yanks this Spring, no question.
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Speaking of Mr. Statistician Magician, Mike, where has he been? It was odd enough that he hardly posted after the Red Sox won the World Series. I wonder if he's just busy, or not too interested in Spring Training baseball. Raoul might need to lay a smack on him.
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Jason,
Great points regarding Wilson Betemit!
I also think Betemit will be part of the Yankees opening day roster...
As I stated in past comments on "Bombers Beat" [March 17, 2008], I think the Yankees opening day roster [position players] will be as follows...
Regular Lineup [position players]...
- Posada (C)
- Giambi (1B/DH); Duncan (1B/DH/OF)
- Cano (2B)
- Jeter (SS)
- A-Rod (3B)
- Damon (LF)
- Melky (CF)
- Abreu (RF)
- Matsui (DH/LF)
Bench...
- Molina (C)
- Wilson Betemit (Backup Infielder - at all IF positions)
- Brett Gardner (OF/Pinch Runner)...note: In my view, Gardner earned a spot on the opening day roster [with his great spring], and will be valuable to the Yanks as a 5th outfielder, and much needed speed off the bench, in key late inning game situations.
But, of course, if changes need to be made [and, there probably will be many, as is the case every year], a quick phone call to (AAA) SWB; or, (AA) Trenton will have the needed minor league players in Yankee pinstripes within 24 hours [or sooner] !!!
Also, Jason, a very true statement regarding "games in doubt [1-4 runs]", when you said, "especially, given how 'porous' the bullpen was at times, these runs all mattered".....
It's amazing, and interesting, how many different words can be used to describe how ineffective the Yankee bullpen was last year !!!...
I totally agree, "All Runs Do Matter" !!!
Hopefully, Joba [along with Mariano] will help fill the many holes that the Yankees had in the bullpen, last year...And, is it possible, we can expect Hawkins and Farnsworth to pitch well this year. Let's keep our fingers crossed!...
Jason, just a side note...
All I can say about "Bombers Beat", is that Bryan Hoch has an excellent Blog [which I know you do agree]. Actually, it was rated the number one Blog [of all the MLBlogs] last month, in terms of visits. I view, and offer comments there, on a regular basis...[you have probably viewed some of my comments]...So, I must say, that about 95% of the regular visitors really are passionate baseball and Yankee fans; and, most comments are respectful, positive, and knowledgeable. But, some comments can be viewed as inappropriate, as in the case regarding the comments directed towards you, regarding your opinions of Wilson Betemit!
With all that said, I think you stated your case very well in your Post [above], and I fully agree with you, and support your position on this issue!!!
Well, Jason! Take care for now!
Jimmy
http://baseballtheyankeesandlife.mlblogs.com/
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Thanks for the kind words and support, Jimmy. I agree with you all around. The last back-up spots are really worth watching, with Gardner, Betemit, Ensberg, Lane, Ransom all impressing at points, and some more than others. Gardner adds that great speed and, while I'd rather see him develop with regular playing time in Scranton, I won't lose a wink of sleep should he make the Yankees. He's had an impressive Spring.
Funny comment about the various ways to describe the bullpen woes from last year (and the past few years, unfortunately). Too true.
On the other stuff, I just checked out the "debate" transpiring at "Bombers Beat" and, given how it's devolved into homophobic hate speech, that's exactly why I washed my hands of the matter with my post here. You're exactly right in your assessment of both Bryan's terrific work and most of the readers there, no question. It's the obtuse opinions of a few--with whom there's no point in further debate, who don't debate, who invent reasons to deny the obvious, who invent fake names to agree with himself (presuming the gender), who can't understand basic structured points, who routinely lack supporting evidence for their views, who continually say the same things, and who ultimately resort to hatred--who for the second straight year have spurred me to say so long there. I won't lose a wink of sleep over that, either. I'm glad things are different here at The Heartland, which has everything to do with really good readers and commenters, people I genuinely enjoy discussing baseball and other things with even when we disagree (which we clearly do at times), good Yankees and baseball fans and even better people all around. That's never lost on me.
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