Given that we're less than five days away from Opening Day, when birds sing, beer flows freely, and manna falls from the Heavens, I thought it might be a good idea to discuss the Yankees' upcoming schedule, some predictions for the American League, and whatever else fires out of my hands tonight. As I mentioned briefly in the previous post, the Yankees would serve themselves well with a quick start to the season, not only because it's always the right way to begin any season, but also because from the end of April through the first week of June, the Yankees will face a stretch of tough teams that will go far in telling us what kind of team the 2007 Yankees will be. Broken down briefly, April starts with with the home-stand against the Devil Rays and Orioles, then shifts to the road and Minnesota and Oakland (the first of four West Coast trips in 2007).  After a day off, the Bombers return home for three games against Cleveland, then hit the road again for a weekend series with Boston (for which I'll assemble my ten--or more--favorite moments in the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry), then two-game series against Tampa Bay and at home against Toronto, with three to end the month against Boston. 

Before assessing May, I have to say that I find the day off between the opener and the second game of the series (Wednesday) to be nothing short of idiotic.  Is there a scheduling conflict with a Papal visit that I overlooked? Is Billy Joel playing the Stadium? WHY THE STINKING DAY OFF?!? Also, even though I cannot stand the two-game series, at least one in April is done right.  Since Tampa is a dome team, there is no chance of a rain out, ensuring the games will be played and spare the Yankees a scheduling juggling act later in the season. Let's hope the two against Toronto go off without a hitch.  Although we couldn't have done better than we did in August against Boston (Boston Massacre III, an ***-kicking any which way you could wish it, which looks great and feels better when written) last year, needing to pile together games because of rain outs is a colossal pain to be avoided, especially when one stems from a pointless two-game series.

Again, the end of April through the first week of June could catapult the Yankees or leave them in an early-season scramble.  After the home series against Boston, NY travels to Texas for three, then comes home for four against Seattle and three versus Texas.  The Yankees immediately head to Seattle for the second of four West Coast swings, then stop on the way back in Chicago for three against the White Sox, then three against the Mets, which at least gets them in their own beds. Then Boston looms again, followed by the Angels, then on the road to Toronto to close May, then three more in Boston followed by four, again in Chicago, against the other Sox. Apparently they couldn't make the 1,000 mile trip to the East Coast in the few weeks between series...

In sum, from April 25 through June 7, 27 of the 40 games the Yankees will play will be against teams with records above .500 in 2006, with the other 13 against Texas and Seattle, teams just below .500 last year. No picnic, with 22 of the 40 on the road and a second early-season trip out West factored in. But that's a good stretch to keep our eyes on, a good barometer for the Yankees.  If we could win at least 24 of those games, we'd stand to be in good shape. Of course, this assumes we have a good April, which I feel in my bones we will. The rest of June, while no cupcake, seems considerably easier on paper, with Pittsburgh, Arizona, the Mets again, Colorado then San Francisco in our third of four West Coast trips, then Oakland to end June.

I won't bore you with any more blow-by-blow listings of the rest of the schedule.  I think I made my point.

I'm tremendously looking forward to Opening Day.  My plan is to get the grill warmed up about 45 minutes before game time, and char broil some hot dogs and spicy jalapeno bratwursts, with a couple cold coldies for good measure. I'll need to peel off around the 6th inning to pick up the kids from school, but that won't deter me from a responsibly festive Opening Day. I'm hoping that The Sage takes off for Opening Day, since I'll be watching the game, like too many others here in the Heartland Midwest, alone.

I felt a strong lag from the Yankees' lackluster exit from the playoffs last year over the off season, but really started to get the itch for baseball about two months ago. While I'm sure the team won't relish all the trips West, or the other vagaries of this year's schedule, I actually enjoy the late night games when the Boys play out West.  It coincides with the house settling down from the day, we're usually not traveling anywhere at that time, and the kids are soon off to bed, leaving me, the game, and a cold one or two for the late innings. GLG is usually along for the ride for the first couple innings of the late games, but gets to bed before it's too late--she's still young, but she always brings the good luck, hence the name, and she asks really smart questions and has good insights.

We need solid pitching from the starters and bullpen, we need health, and we need smart patient at-bats.  The bats will no doubt be there, but there are too few people in the lineup willing to take the ball the other way. A-Rod, Giambi, and Posada, though terrific hitters historically or better, too often look to pull the ball, no doubt because they can and have done so often. But we need Jeter, Cano, Matsui, and even Damon, to set the tone and example to use the opposite field. The 1998 Yankees, the greatest team I've ever seen by a country mile, didn't beat teams with the home run even though they hit 207 of them. Tino lead the team with 28, while Bernie hit 26 after missing 34 games.  They did it by extending teams with timely base hits and a seemingly endless cycle of walks, four more than last year's very patient team. That's just over four walks a game.  They also did it with pitching and even though we lack the rotation depth that the historic 1998 team had, we should still be good enough to string together some quality starts. Health is always an issue, and obviously teams, including us, always have to deal with injuries.  But last year injuries hit us hard, losing Matsui and Sheffield. Though Bernie and Melky filled in very well, better than many of us would have guessed, it's hard to imagine that a healthy Matsui and Sheffield wouldn't have done great.

Matsui seems an overlooked key to the season to me. In that devastating and dominant lineup, Matsui will likely hit 6th, between Giambi and Cano or Posada.  He's good for 100 RBI, and has never needed to hit a lot of home runs for us to be effective.  I can envision him hitting what he did in 2005 (23-116-.305), and being more than happy with that. He's really important to the bottom half of the lineup wearing other teams' pitchers out, and should get a lot of good looks with Cano behind him and Giambi in front.  As Peter Gammons said at the beginning of last year, pitchers facing the Yankees better pitch great because the Yankees will absolutely kill mediocre pitching.

Good Pitching, Health, and Smart At-Bats, in that order, and we'll be just fine.
Peace.

It is genuinely nothing more than coincidental that this post follows Carl Pavano's most recent Spring Training start.  I issue this disclaimer since most of my other posts on this nascent blog have immediately followed either Pavano or Kei Igawa's efforts, both of whom have continued to impress as camp winds down.  Having listened to much of the first five innings while waiting for a new (new used, actually) dryer to arrive, it is hard not to be impressed with Pavano's results.  As good as his stat line was (6 IP, 6H, 2ER, 1BB, 0K), it was his ability to induce four double plays (FOUR) that wowed me. Moreover, only one or two of the Twins' hits, by their own radio broadcasters' account (I listen and watch online, glad to have spent four great seasons with Sterling/Steiner and Sterling Waldman, but eager to actually watch the games; that's another tangent for later), were solid hits.  The rest were bloops.  Like so many of us, I've spent so much time wondering whether or not Pavano would stay healthy and be accepted by skeptical teammates that I've overlooked his strengths. When he's on, Pavano throws a really good sinking two-seam fastball that jams hitters. 

Yet again, it's only Spring Training, but Pavano's continued improvement warrants some speculation for the season, given that he's now assured to be in the rotation to start the season. Pavano's strengths--the ability and confidence to pitch in the strike zone, his sinking fastball, being a ground-ball pitcher when effective, the ability when healthy (see 2003/2004) to eat innings through quality starts--could add much to a Yankees staff that desperately needs good, healthy starting pitching.  What Pavano showed today with the four DP balls fits in with Wang's and Pettite's strengths as well.  Obviously, Wang's m.o. is the heavy sinker that Kevin Millar likened to trying to hit a bowling ball, and Pettite is most effective when he keeps hitters on their heels by changing speeds and keeps the ball down in the zone.  In addition to health, which has caused early concern with the injuries to Wang, Pettite, and Jeff Karstens (who was definitely in line to make the Opening Day roster before the triceps/elbow soreness), our pitchers' need to keep the ball down is vital, given that most of our starters are far from overpowering. Wang is the possible exception with his outstanding sinker, throwing traditional analysis of power pitchers through high strikeout totals out the window. The measure of Wang's overpowering hitters is not double-digit strikeouts but double-digit ground outs.  With Philip Hughes starting the season in Scranton and Roger Clemens (older but still able to consistently to bring low 90s fastballs) still deciding on his future, Yankees starters lack blazing heat, and can therefore ill afford to be up in the zone.

Shifting gears, I genuinely feel for Andy Phillips and am glad to hear that his mother is recovering nicely from her unfortunate car accident. That said, the Yankees would be making a mistake not keeping Josh Phelps for Opening Day. He's killing the ball this Spring (.438 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI) and traditionally hits lefties well, more than making up for being an inferior defensive first baseman to Phillips, who incidentally struck out all four times today. The Yankees cannot send Phelps down to Scranton because, as a Rule 5 selection, he must stay with the Yankees this season or be offered on the cheap back to the Orioles from which he came. I like Phillips, and think given the chance he'll be a decent role player for the Yanks, but we're not talking about sending down a star by choosing Phelps over Phillips. I say take the guy who's hitting and has some proven power--keep Phelps.

There are some interesting choices facing Torre and his staff concerning the bullpen, though injuries to Wang and Karstens may have made them a little easier for the time being. Since the Bombers are committed to keeping 12 pitchers, the seven in the bullpen should be Mariano, Proctor, Farnsworth, Viscaino, Myers, Sean Henn and Brian Bruney.  I really like Villone, he's a gamer and was outstanding for about 3 1/2 months last season, but was badly overused, and has probably reverted to the form of most of the rest of his career, which wasn't great. I'm not sure why keeping him over Henn would be an advantage--their pitches are similar in speed and selection (fastball, slider, with the occasional change from Villone that Henn should learn). But given the rest of the bullpen, which is stronger this year than others in recent memory, and the addition of Viscaino who is death on lefties, either Henn or Villone stand to be used sparingly.  Why not give the kid a chance?  Like with Phelps, it's time to reward some new blood with stints in the Majors. Reward Henn.

Has anyone checked the schedule this year for the Yankees and the rest of the AL East? The Yankees have four, yes FOUR, trips out west this year--one in April, May, and June each, then the last in August (from memory so don't quote me), in large part due to our inter-league rotation being against the NL West this year.  Initially I was steamed like an Atlantic lobster when I saw this.  But after I checked the rest of the AL East, I'm not sure we have it worse than the others.  From memory, most if not all the rest of the division has either two or three trips out west, and most have to travel out west twice in the same month. Ouch. More on the season schedule will follow tomorrow, but a heads-up is to watch out for May--it's a loo-loo, making a fast start in April with or without Wang imperative.

We celebrated my wife's multi-29th birthday a few days ago, a low-key but joyful day even if she doesn't want to be reminded of her age, which is younger than mine.  She's the best, most unselfish person I know.  Every guy should be so lucky.

My good friend Captain Pat called me last week, and we had a stinking good long-distance chin wag. The Captain and I go way back, starting our friendship while working at a supermarket together and commuting on the same bus to two different state universities in the late 1980s. We've shared some great moments--his standing up in my wedding, countless football games, softball, boatloads of beer, better living through recreational chemistry, endless chats about sports, politics, music, cartoons political and otherwise, kids, and life, and just plain being there for each other. He's one of a kind. He's also introduced me to some people who have become my own lifelong friends--Frank the Sage (the Best Man at my wedding), the Foxman, Richie the Kid.  Two memories of the Captain immediately came to mind after our rousing conversation last week.  The first took me back to our bus, the 38 Special, which gave us the latitude to talk about whatever, whenever, and at whatever volume level we wanted and needed, especially after the 9-5 suits exited. The Captain, who introduced me to the wisdom and genius of "Bloom County," was discussing the finer points of Penguin Dreams and Stranger Things when Crazy Cathy (an Alice-the-Goon alike, not to be confused with my own crazy ex-girlfriend of the same name, differentiated only by height, hair color, and dental (mis-)alignment), another wacked-out passenger on the 38 Special, started screaming at the Captain to shut up, only not so politely.  Unflappable to the core, the Captain politely requested that she mind her manners as well as the sinking line on her cheap dye-job blond hair. No doubt offended by the request, its patient and polite delivery, and my hearty guffaws, Crazy Cathy proceeded to take off one of her shoes and throw it over the seat at the Captain, who barely avoided it and the bacterial infestation it no doubt transported. When she asked for her shoe back, the Captain chilvarously obliged by repeatedly banging the sole of the shoe off the top of her poorly dyed skull.  Jeff Spicoli would have been proud.  The Captain only returned the shoe when Crazy Cathy was about to exit our 38 Special, doing so by bowling it down the aisle dampened badly with a typical allotment of upstate NY snow.  The Captain has a heart of gold, which I've seen revealed in all its splendor to friend and stranger alike.  But don't mess with the Captain--he'll come up on you sideways.

The second memory that came back to me was our first year of softball together, 1993.  The Captain asked me, still somewhat athletic, to play ball with his city buddies. I reluctantly agreed, even though they needed a second baseman, and I had accumulated all of no plays, ever, at second base or any other infield position.  Thankfully I was flanked at first by the good Captain himself, and at short by Frank the Sage, who among other accomplishments preserved a great win, 12-11 (over a team that shellacked us earlier in the season, by plucking a rolling ball off the ground by second base to get the second-last out, after I gamely blocked a smashed grounder up the middle, but failed to hold it--a great memory, watching The Sage cover the bag effortlessly while snagging the rolling ball, all seemingly in slow motion).  Sorry for the Joycean moment, but it's late.  Anyhoo, early in this 12-11 victory, some masher for the opposition, a steroid-chomping reprobate, creamed a ball right toward me.  Having had a rough first few games at second, this screaming liner was just what I needed to boost my flagging confidence.  I heard it before I saw it, whistling like a V-2 all the way, and when I took a hard step to my left, I realized I needed to stop and grab the ball before it jellied my face and what modest allotment of gray matter I had. Doing so not only saved my face but made the out, a snag of a liner that literally tore through the air.  After making my first non-routine play in the infield, and returning the ball to our pitcher who thankfully gained a measure of confidence in a young, second-base novice, I briefly felt good enough about my moderate athleticism to play some relaxed second base. That is, until I heard the Captain mutter to me, "Get that smug look off your face!" To this day, I'm not sure if I remember that sequence because I finally made a good play, or because the Captain kept me in check after it. Either way, my  memory has inextricably interwoven them into a fabric that keeps me warm whenever I'm lucky enough to recall it and the Captain, a good man through and through.

Ahhh, the first day of Spring.  Having officially declared winter over, and having a sunny, windy, 72-degree day to show for it, it was a great day for the first game of catch with GLG, a great young Yankees fan who loves to pound the leather with her trademark fastball.  I'm also working in my son's new glove so we can get going on some catch this year.

I neglected to ask this earlier, but if anyone else caught last night's Yankees game, please confirm or deny my belief that Igawa threw a screwball to Shane Victorino in the third inning last night.  Perhaps it was a change-up gone awry, since some of his change-ups didn't break at all, but it distinctly looked like a screwball on his second pitch to Victorino.  That would be a nice wrinkle...

It's good to get back to writing a bit after a brief hiatus, with other deadlines beckoning and some duties at home to tend to.  Though I find myself prefacing everything I say about this Spring with "It's only Spring Training, but...", it is worth saying that the pitching has for the most part been solid, especially the starting pitching and some selected relievers.  Most of my time and effort spent watching some of the Spring games thus far has been focused on analyzing the pitchers, particularly Igawa and Pavano, both of whom, based on their performances thus far, probably deserve to be in the rotation.  Pavano hasn't done a lot hurt his chances--he's been healthy and focused, and his performances have been pretty good.  I did not see him against the Phillies, and though he wasn't great (3 IP, 4H, 3R 2ER, 2BB, 1K), his line was hurt by a scoring change on what was initially, and from what I understand a correctly, ruled error on Andy Phillips at 3rd, making two second and third of his runs allowed earned.  He was good against the everyday Red Sox lineup the time before, which I did see.

Igawa has been good, and getting better, despite continued issues with his location.  The game against the Phillies yesterday was better and helped his case in the race for the 5th starter, especially with Karstens getting battered a bit against the Blue Jays, an overall run-for-the-bus performance by a half-full lineup in the 9-1 loss.  Igawa did a much better job throwing first-pitch strikes with his fastball than with his off-speed stuff, and Posada seemed to realize this after the second inning, when Igawa threw off-speed pitches to all four batters--all for balls.  Most of his initial offerings the rest of the way were fastballs, except for a beautiful curve for a strike to start off Shane Victorino in the 5th.  Though Igawa walked three, he did a good job of not letting anyone past second, and retired Ryan Howard twice.  It will be interesting to see if the Yankees do indeed send Igawa to Scranton to start the season, or if they fret that the move to sort out some control issues will damage his confidence, giving him even more to deal with in his transition to baseball and life in the US. Personally, and based on his performances thus far, I would keep Igawa up, and also keep Karstens as a long reliever/spot starter, especially since Chris Britton hasn't had a good Spring, and Brian Bruney is still coming back from injury and illness (though Bruney looked good his last time out, striking out two Jays in one inning).  More on my take on the final roster next time.

I watched into the 8th, and was duly impressed with Mariano's work in the 6th, when he struck out two, including Ryan Howard on a beautiful change up a bit down and away.  Word is the Sandman is tinkering with a change, and according to Michael Kay, Mariano used to have a terrific change when he was a starter.  John Flaherty downplayed Mariano's tinkering, saying that he's done this most training camps, and questioning with Kay why Rivera would stray from the cutter and occasional when it's worked so well thus far.  I have to admit such a move would be intriguing, especially seeing how Howard flailed at the change, but as Jim Leyritz proved to Mark Wohlers in Game Four of the 1996 Series, you can't get beaten with your second-best pitch, as I'm sure Rivera is well aware as he tinkers with something to complement his Hall-of-Fame cutter.

Luis Viscaino has done well also, and he has sneaky speed on his fastball.  He'll be a good addition to the bullpen for certain, not only because he can throw so often (unlike Farnsworth), but his delivery is awkward and his stuff different from the others (Rivera, Proctor, Farnsworth).  He throws more off-speed stuff than they do, and it's tough on lefties, and his fastball ran in nicely on the inner half of righties yesterday.

Before signing off to do other things today, it is worth mentioning that Jason Giambi looked impressive in the field yesterday.  He made a good scoop on a bare-handed throw by Cano on a slow roller from Aaron Rowand in the first, a terrific scoop on a relay throw from Jeter to get Jayson Werth doubled off first in the second, and another great scoop on another Jeter throw in the dirt in the third to retire Victorino.  Giambi has always had good hands, and his ability to scoop the ball in the dirt has always been above average, but his range and poor throwing still make him a disappointing liability in the field.  Yet he historically hits better, especially for average, when he plays the field.  Given the decisions on Mientkiewicz's playing time, and whether to keep Phelps or Phillips, I wouldn't be surprised to see Giambi at first a fair amount this year.  I feel for Mientkiewicz, he's a good guy and works hard, and has hit the ball hard but at people this Spring, but let's hope for goodness sake he hits way higher than his .074 thus far.  That's not encouraging, to say the least.

See you in a couple days. I'm going to enjoy some warm weather after a very cold winter, which I'm declaring officially over. Peace.

Hi Everyone:

Welcome to the inaugural post of Heartland Pinstripes, my personal effort to stay in closer touch with the New York Yankees and baseball generally while transplanted from New York to the Midwest.  Please excuse the Blog site, which is obviously just getting started and will get considerable attention in the coming weeks, but I couldn't help getting going and some writing on baseball at least a little.  I'll add links and information as I go.  In part, I'm writing now to avoid more pressing duties, like writing a paper I have due Monday (I have part of it written, so I don't feel too guilty, plus there are plenty of late nights ahead of me in the next week anyway).  But honestly, I've had the baseball itch for the last several weeks, so it's really to quench my baseball thirst that this appears now. Yesterday was an absolutely glorious day--65 degrees and not a cloud in the sky--so how could I not think about baseball? Also, there are some really terrific blogs on MLBlog, and I hope in time I can something of value to an already great group of bloggers.

Feel free to check the "About" link to find out more about me, though many of my posts will be semi-autobiographical as the season winds on.  I'm interested to hear from anyone, Yankees fan or otherwise, and will post and converse a lot when available before the season starts. I'm in Cubs, Cardinals, and White Sox country and will gladly talk any and all teams, but it is a Yankees Blog, so that will be the crux of what I write.  I have to put myself on a schedule to get some other things done, and since it is spring training after all, I probably won't post every day until the season starts.  When I do write during the season, it'll probably be something before a game, and a lot more afterward. Don't be surprised to see something unrelated to baseball now and then, especially with the NCAA Tournament getting underway tonight (I"m a huge basketball fan).

On last night's Yanks-Sox game, I can't say I lost any sleep over the 7-5 loss for a few reasons.  Yes, I want the Yankees to win every game, but I can't get too worked up over spring training games.  Mostly, I wanted to see how Pavano did (more on that below), how the rookies played, and to see everyone come through healthy and in shape, which is most important.  That the Yanks beat up Wakefield a bit is a good sign (four runs on eight hit in four innings), especially since a few of the regulars--Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, and Posada--didn't play and the Red Sox essentially put their everyday lineup on the field (with Mirabelli catching Wakefield as he would during the season).  Though I picked up the game in the bottom of the second and therefore missed his first inning, my sense is Pavano had a pretty good start overall.  He allowed three straight two-out hits for the two runs in the second, and regularly got behind the top of the order in the third, but he looked comfortable, threw hard, and wasn't afraid to challenge guys--especially Ramirez--inside. His slider had good late bite, and he got squeezed (as did Wakefield) by HP umpire Culbreth, who seemed unwilling to call a belt-high strike for the first six innings. Rasner looked better than his scoring line showed, mainly because he had a tough time in the 6th.  Bean struggled with his control a bit, and Ohlendorf, who has been pretty good this spring, couldn't hit the broad side of his own back side with a paddle, plugging Youkilis and Ochoa in the same inning, missing a pickoff attempt, and looking wild overall.  But, again, it's spring training. My priorities were, in this order, Pavano's performance, chatting baseball with my daughter GLG (Good Luck Girl, aptly named by my good friend Frank the Sage, both of whom will be referred to on a fairly regular basis here), and enjoying a couple cold Sam Adams Double Bocks with three andouille bratwursts.

It was actually Frank the Sage who helped really get me going on baseball with a par-for-the-course marathon long-distance call from NY the night before.  After a long series of mutual diatribes about politics, we got hip-deep into baseball.  The Sage is less sanguine about Pavano than I, saying "If he didn't throw one pitch for us this year after all his nonsense last year, I wouldn't either lose sleep or be surprised." It's hard to disagree with that, given Pavano's poor handling of his injury--and his car--last year on top of all the other stuff, but he's admittedly a wild card for this team.  I'm iffy about Pavano mainly because of his on-field history.  Though he had a good 2000, going 8-4 with a 3.06 ERA, his 2004 campaign (18-8, 3.00 ERA) sticks out like a sore thumb from a largely mediocre career.  He's got ability, and if healthy can give us a lot of quality starts, but he's key to shoring up the back end of the rotation that, let's face it, hasn't been solid since 2003 and some stretches of 2004.  Which Pavano we'll get I don't know, but at this point, I'm at least willing to hope for the 2000/2004 version and not the two wasted months of 2005 and gone since Pavano, maybe out of sheer necessity.  But it's hard to deny that the Pavano signing thus far has been a bust, part of an unfortunately long line of signings and acquisitions in the last several years that haven't panned out.

There will be more in the coming days about the Bombers and other important topics, but thanks for reading so far. I'm going to enjoy the warm weather, grab a sammich, and get working on my other stuff. Peace everyone.